Breaking Down the 2015 Almond Forecast

May 7, 2015
Written by Elise

Every year, the USDA, NASS, and CDFA survey a random sampling of California's almond farmers and release projections for the year. This year's population representative sample of 328 growers reported the size of their crop last year and their expectations for the size of their crop this year. Their answers give us an idea what the almond market will be in 2015--whether it will be more difficult to buy them and whether they will be more expensive than last year. This information is valuable to anyone who loves and buys almonds, so we're breaking down the forecast.


The first important thing to know is that the almond crop enters the market around Autumn. So almonds you buy now are from the 2014 crop, but if you buy almonds in November (for example), they'll be from 2015's crop. This means any projected data won't affect what you're buying until then.

The second important thing to know is that, while the annual California Almond Forecast provides very few of it's own statistics by which we could get more information (they provide only their projections), since 2010 there has only been one instance (by our math) in which the error in any of their projections was statistically significant: one of their projections for the year 2012. Because their data is a collection of the estimates of individual growers about their own crops and because their rainy season began at the end of the year before with a major storm which was not followed by much other significant rain or snowfall, it's reasonable that growers overestimated their yields that year and this projection was off. All the rest of the report's projections from 2010 onward have been very close to reality.

For 2015, it is projected that 890,000 acres of land in California will bear almonds, up 20,000 acres from last year and 220,000 acres from 2010. The amount of land on which almonds have been grown has not decreased since the projections started being made in 1995. More almond trees are bearing fruit than ever.

On this land, it is projected that 1.85 billion pounds of almonds will be grown, down 1% from last year's crop of 1.87 billion pounds, which was also down from 2013's yield of 2.01 billion pounds of almonds. Over the years, there have been multiple periods of time in which California's almond crop decreased in size, and multiple reasons for this. It is possible that the recent decreases could be related to the state's current drought conditions.

When it comes to price per pound, the report doesn't make projections. It's worth noting that--with very few exceptions--as the size of the crop has grown, prices have decreased, and vice versa. Many of these exceptions have occurred in the past few years. During the state's drought, prices have increased whether or not the crop grew. This may have to do with the cost of water: as the report notes, "Water is a problem for many growers with limited amounts available for purchase. Growers irrigating with well water expressed concern regarding salinity." In fact, the average price of almonds per pound has grown since 2008. It would be reasonable to expect the same this year.

Here's to hoping for the best for this year's almonds!